This year 2023 will be remembered as the year of instability or the year of the beginning of a new global equilibrium. By 2028, we estimate new partnerships and balances will become more evident to structurally support the next World evolution.
CoVid, the war in Ukraine, the Hamas attack and the internal crisis in the USA have brought to light the end of the post WWII equilibria.
Particularly, the American Society is deeply entangled in a redefinition of its roots and roles. Since "Project 1619" was published, the American Dream has been tainted with a gray overlay. Is America still the "land of the free" and is "Happiness" still possible? at what price? and is anyone willing to pay it?
This internal analysis and debates are impacting the global USA assertiveness. In particular, the unwillingness of the US to engage in regional confrontations globally is redefining the role of many countries.
At present, no country has the possibility of taking a global leadership position.
Furthermore, the end of Globalization (or let China be the manufacturing hub of the World) is redefining partnerships, treaties and alliances. The concepts of Nearshoring, or Friendshoring are underlining one key feature: security is more relevant than cost.
With this in mind, we look at the World Map from the Sea (the continuum of Earth water bodies or simply a fish viewpoint) and can directly identify 8 platforms defined by Straits or Choke Points which can evolve as Regional Ecosystems.
We define Platform, in this context, as a portion of the seas whose bordering countries share:
deep historical ties;
common ways of doing business;
specific geopolitical issues;
potential self-sustaining energy management;
tangible local growth pathways.
According to the above definition, 8 regionally relevant platforms can be identified.
Within each platform, specific countries should step to the leadership role and engage as pivot points to assure growth and maintain key ties with the other platforms' leaders.
As a matter of fact, regionally, tensions are and will continue to arise to redefine balances and local specificities.
Consequently, the equilibrium of these platforms can either generate regional growth or, conversely, be the trigger point for WWIII.
The Global Relevance of the 8 platforms is defined according to the potential and likelihood of being the trigger point for a global conflict in case of its destabilization or destabilization of the regional leader.
Global Relevance | Platform | Local Established or Potential Leadership |
|---|---|---|
1 | The Caribbean | USA |
2 | The Mediterranean | Italy / Turkey |
3 | The East China Sea | China / Japan |
4 | The Baltic | Denmark |
5 | The South China Sea | China / Indonesia / Vietnam |
6 | The Persian Gulf | Saudi Arabia / Iran |
7 | The Gulf of Guinea | Nigeria |
8 | The Rio de la Plata | Argentina / Brazil |
A relevant role will be played also by, what we define as, the Hinge Countries, which have specific ties and could play the connecting role with more than one platform.
Relevance | Country | Connecting Platforms |
A | The United Kingdom | 2, 4 |
B | India | 2, 5, 6 |
C | The Philippines | 3, 5 |
D | Saudi Arabia | 2, 6 |
E | Morocco | 2, 7 |
This analysis will allow for disecting strategic business alliances, critical investments, the activism of certain countries and the dicourse of political and industrial leadership.
Multiple recent events confirm this trend and will be discussed specifically in upcoming posts dedicated to each platform.
